Mathmatical Prediction of Book 6 Release Date

[KBIG104]

Well, I always felt that learning all that AP Statistics would come in handy sometime. . .

Here's what we do know:

Let it be assumed that all books are released on the 1st of the month for statistical purposes only.

Book 1 - Sorc. Stone
Date: Sept. 1998
Pages: 309

Book 2 - Cham. of Secrets
Date: June 1999
Pages: 341
Days Since Last: 273
Pages Per Day: 1.24
Days Per Pages: 0.800 (One Page per 19 hours)

Book 3 - Pris. of Askaban
Date: September 1999
Pages: 435
Days Since Last: 92
Pages Per Day: 4.72
Days Per Pages: 0.211 (One Page per 5 hours)

Book 4 - Gobl. of Fire
Date: July 2000
Pages: 734
Days Since Last: 273
Pages Per Day: 2.68
Days Per Pages: 0.372 (One Page per 9 hours)

Book 5 - Order of Pheonix
Date: June 2003
Pages: 870
Days Since Last: 698
Pages Per Day: 1.24
Days Per Pages: 0.802 (One Page per 19 hours)

Now, I do find it interesting that everyone complained how long it took for Book 5 to come out, however the pages/days rate is consistant with the release of Book #2.

Based on this data, we can create a linear relationship model for number of days based upon the number of pages we predict Book 6 will be.

For those who know statistics, know what the "r" or "correlation coeffiecnt" is. In this case, our r=0.7608, which isn't very strong, but is still at an acceptable level to be used for our model. The coefficent of determination is 57%, which is not very good, but oh well, life's not perfect.

Therefore, with a bit of simple algebra, we can substitue x as being number of pages, and y being the result of number of days from the release of Book 5 to Book 6.

y=0.788x-134.87

This model is only good if you use a reasonable assumption of pages. If you say that it's only going to be 7 pages, then the model will not work.

Let's try a measly, conservative, large, and extreme example of 300, 600, 900, and 1200 pages.

300 Pages = 101.53 Days = September 2003
600 Pages = 337.93 Days = May 2004
900 Pages = 574.33 Days = September 2004
1200 Pages = 810.7 Days = August 2005

Well, that's the math of it, anyway.

[Gwared]

Ah. this brings back memories!

I predict an early 2005 release but as I barely remember statistics I shall work on the theory that JK no longer has deadlines. Lets use the 1.24 (slowest) page/day model and assume (we know book 6 will [ok JK said it] be smaller) 700 pages?

700/1.24 = 564.52/365.25(no. of days/yr)
= 1.55 yrs
= 1yr 199 days and 6 hours

Leads to a January/February 2005 release.

[KBIG104]

I really should pull Prisoner of Askaban out since it's quite an outlier, but I'm too lazy to do the regression over again. There's no way that she could say she wrong PoA since the release of 2. She had to have been writing it simultaniously with CoS.

[redhead2531]

why did you have to bring up math????? oh well but good thinking and the first 3 shouldn't have much as an effect because back then she had deadlines and she probably was writing them simultaneously. spelling?

[Enchanter]

i would also add an extra year to any predictions because they are going to want to publisize the book and build up intensity

[fra-sirius]

ok, that's funny!!!!!

early 2005???? that's too long!
i mean, i read somewhere that jkr has almost finished the 6th book ... why it should take so long for publishing??? ok, ok ... i know the answer ... marketing and advertising strategy ....

[Bimbybecca]

I agree, 2005 is way to long, however J.K.Rowling has a lot to do, she has 2 kids to look after, she has to help out on the films, she has to make interviews and media things, she has to have a social life and she has to be a good citizen, So it might be 2005 but we do get the films to look foward to

[Violet]

Well i obviously want the 6th book as soon as possible, however i think that the wait for the book shouldn't be as bad as we have plenty of HP to re-read, i've not yet had any time to thoroughly read book 5, and that will certainly take me a while!
But i think that it will be early 2005 that we see the next book, i'll be nearly 20 by then!

[Gypsy]

I just presumed that it would be another three years before the sixth book came out, but I suppose as J.K. says it will be shorter it might be out some time in 2005. I hope she doesnt rush it though as it would be awful if the next book turned out rubbish. A part of me wants her to take ages to write the next two books to delay the awful moment when I finish the last book, and have to face the prospect of no more harry potter books ever. Mind you, having said that, I still wouldnt complain if it came out 92 days after OotP, like PoA did after CoS. I mean, if that happened we would be almost half way already.

[AccioNiffler]

Ick, all this math is reminding me of what I have to do once I get back to school in September Oh well, at least it's all finally come in handy, you know benn put to good use, lol! 2005 seems like so far away! But it would make sense. But maybe she will be done before that. Now that she doesn't have a deadline though, there's a lot less pressure on her. I dont know about evreyone else, but I work a lot better and faster when I dont have someone breathing down my neck to finish up. Fra-sirius, I thought that I heard somewhere that she alraedy had a lot of book 6 done too.

And book 3, the outlier, the one written so quickly, isn't that one most people's favorite? It probably came out so fast because JKR was so passionate about it, so maybe if she's really passionate about book 6, that'll come out really quickly too! *wishfull thinking*

[Lizzy Bennet]

Ick, all this math is reminding me of what I have to do once I get back to school in September Oh well, at least it's all finally come in handy, you know benn put to good use, lol! 2005 seems like so far away! But it would make sense. But maybe she will be done before that. Now that she doesn't have a deadline though, there's a lot less pressure on her. I dont know about evreyone else, but I work a lot better and faster when I dont have someone breathing down my neck to finish up. Fra-sirius, I thought that I heard somewhere that she alraedy had a lot of book 6 done too.

And book 3, the outlier, the one written so quickly, isn't that one most people's favorite? It probably came out so fast because JKR was so passionate about it, so maybe if she's really passionate about book 6, that'll come out really quickly too! *wishfull thinking*

If I remember correctly, an interview with J.K. Rowling (it's on the Chamber of Secrets DVD/VHS as well!) revealed that she had writer's block when writing the 2nd and 4th books (which, because she overcame that, those two are her favourites), which may explain why book 3 came out faster. She also said that book 3, while not her favourite, was the most fun to write to date (this was before book 5 had come out) because of the new characters she loved so much that were introduced: namely Sirius and Remus (Lupin), one of which is now deceased.

Hope that helps to clarify things about the timing of the books ...I'm astounded by the level of the math on this thread! That's really impressive, and I'm with all of you--I'd love to see the book come out in 2004 ...all I know is that it won't come out at the same time as a movie, and it will need time to be hyped and marketed as, for most of the people involved, it's about the money. Oh well...here's hoping for book 6 in late 2004!


~ Lizzy

[Meg Boyd]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm....i vaguely remember learning something like that in pre-calculus or i could just be hallucinating...either way i kinda was only sort of lost...lol

Any way I would love a Sept 2003 or May 2004 release of book 6...but since the movie is due out in the spring of 2004, i doubt a May 2004 release...

*tear*

I remember hearing that book 6 would be shorter, more in the line of Book 3...maybe a sooner release could be possible...i mean now that things are a bit settled down after a marriage and the birth of her baby I think the books will play more of a front seat role than before...

Anyway...meanwhile back at the ranch...

[AccioNiffler]

I think that everyone is right about the book not comming out at the same time as the movie, but I have to say, that makes me sad And any release date this year is probably just too soon *AccioNiffle makes a second frown in just one post!* SO now all my hopes are set on summer or fall 2004. (summer 2004 would be great because then I could get the 6th book as a birthday present! )

[Meg Boyd]

I agree...excpet I would like a spring 2004 release because it I think the sixth Harry Potter book would make an excellent birthday slash Graduation present...lol...what student graduating from high school wouldn't want it????

[Lizzy Bennet]

I'm thinking spring or summer 2004 might be unlikely as that's around the time movie #3 comes out, and it seems those making money tend to want the books and the movies coming out at different times...so they can get the most bang for their buck.

That's why, if it comes out at all in 2004, I'm thinking it might be late 2004, like November or December. For all we know, it could come out in 2005. However, while I can see marketers not wanting to release the books at the same time as the movies, I don't see them prolonging the release of the books too long...I read somewhere (I think it was Mugglenet) that the books didn't bring in the sales that were expected for book #5 (that isn't to say it didn't sell a great deal, just not as much as projected). The book, according to what I read, was also massively discounted at all the Amazon sites. It's a fine balance between the marketers taking enough time to market the book and get the hype up, yet not holding out too long and losing the interest of the readers whilst not 'competing' with the release of the most recent Harry Potter movie.

My post wasn't mathematical nor did it really give any definitive answers, but I still go with my hunch that the earliest we'll see book 6 is late 2004. But, of course, that is just my opinion! I'd love, of course, for it to come out much earlier, so I hope that I am wrong...if you read any rumours about the release of book 6, please write about them in the Book 5 Rumours section!


~ Lizzy