Broomsticks And Owls

by **Gwared** » Monday 21 July 2003 11:45:37am

Lizzy Bennet wrote:I'm thinking spring or summer 2004 might be unlikely as that's around the time movie #3 comes out, and it seems those making money tend to want the books and the movies coming out at different times...so they can get the most bang for their buck.

That's why, if it comes out at all in 2004, I'm thinking it might be late 2004, like November or December. For all we know, it could come out in 2005. However, while I can see marketers not wanting to release the books at the same time as the movies, I don't see them prolonging the release of the books too long...I read somewhere (I think it was Mugglenet) that the books didn't bring in the sales that were expected for book #5 (that isn't to say it didn't sell a great deal, just not as much as projected). The book, according to what I read, was also massively discounted at all the Amazon sites. It's a fine balance between the marketers taking enough time to market the book and get the hype up, yet not holding out too long and losing the interest of the readers whilst not 'competing' with the release of the most recent Harry Potter movie.

My post wasn't mathematical nor did it really give any definitive answers, but I still go with my hunch that the earliest we'll see book 6 is late 2004. But, of course, that is just my opinion! I'd love, of course, for it to come out much earlier, so I hope that I am wrong...if you read any rumours about the release of book 6, please write about them in the Book 5 Rumours section!

~ Lizzy

Aha!, I got mine from Amazon, 50% off :-)

.

by **Sacred Guardian** » Tuesday 22 July 2003 4:09:26am

i hope that we don't have to wait till 2005 for the next book, that would be horrible

by **Blaise Zabini** » Tuesday 22 July 2003 7:30:40am

I' mprobably a minority in saying this, but I think that an early 2005 releasse date would be just fine. Were the books to come out in September 2003 or ealrly 2004, we'd have no time to develop and theories or speculations! Goodness, I'd probably even forget what OotP was about! But with an early 2005 release date, it's enough time to be able to digest and analyze OotP, without making us for an agonizingly long time!

Oh, and KBIG and Gwared, I applaud you math skills (and the fact that regressions can be incorporated into the HP universe) and the effort you've taken in giving us an estimate of the release date with some substantiating evidence!

by **Gwared** » Tuesday 22 July 2003 11:16:08am

Blaise Zabini wrote:I' mprobably a minority in saying this, but I think that an early 2005 releasse date would be just fine. Were the books to come out in September 2003 or ealrly 2004, we'd have no time to develop and theories or speculations! Goodness, I'd probably even forget what OotP was about! But with an early 2005 release date, it's enough time to be able to digest and analyze OotP, without making us for an agonizingly long time!

Oh, and KBIG and Gwared, I applaud you math skills (and the fact that regressions can be incorporated into the HP universe) and the effort you've taken in giving us an estimate of the release date with some substantiating evidence!

Hehe, my maths was simplistic. I've long since forgotten any statstics I did for A-level maths, although I do remember getting 98% on the exam :lol:

I very nearly had to kill myself as I'd boasted that I would get 100% :-)

The only statistics I do now is with regards to genetics, and x-squared!

by **Ju-DedoH** » Thursday 24 July 2003 9:56:56pm

redhead2531 wrote:why did you have to bring up math?????

you know, some people actually like maths ...

by **Lizzy Bennet** » Friday 25 July 2003 1:37:11pm

On this webpage, I found out when the projected dates are for Harry Potter movies 4 and 5:

http://www.darkhorizons.com/news.htm

So, here's the predicted line-up thus far:

June 2004: Harry Potter movie #3

November 2005: Harry Potter movie #4

June 2007: Harry Potter movie #5

I think it's safe to assume that no new Harry Potter books will be released at the same time a movie is...money-wise, that just doesn't make sense, and it's never been the case before. If that's true, then I would imagine book 6 would come out sometime after movie #3 and before movie #4 [perhaps late 2004/early 2005]. Following the same train of thought, book 7 would then come out (possibly) after movie #4 and before movie #5 (hopefully not AFTER movie #5!

), meaning book #6 might come out sometime in the year 2006 (though, if book #7 is as long as JKR says it's going to be, as it will be her final book, it COULD be after movie #5 :eek:

).

What do you think? :???:

I think it's interesting knowing when the movies may come out because I do think they give us a better idea of when to possibly expect the new books. :grin:

I would imagine movie #4 and #5 would be split into two movies releasing months apart, so I guess that has to be factored in. Sorry for being such a geek! :razz:

It would be nice to have an idea when book 6 was coming out particularly in relation to movie #3. Just wanted to add my information and see what your thoughts on it were...I know it isn't strictly mathematical :oops:

, but I hope you'll forgive me for that! :razz:

~ Lizzy

by **Nacht** » Tuesday 29 July 2003 8:59:00pm

Well since you use the US release dates these figures are pretty meaningless.

For example: CoS, US release june 1999, UK release July 1998

by **Lizzy Bennet** » Tuesday 29 July 2003 11:26:08pm

Nacht wrote:Well since you use the US release dates these figures are pretty meaningless.

For example: CoS, US release june 1999, UK release July 1998

I sit corrected then...thank you for making me aware.

~ Lizzy

by **Dink Meeker** » Wednesday 30 July 2003 2:07:12pm

Nacht wrote:Well since you use the US release dates these figures are pretty meaningless.

For example: CoS, US release june 1999, UK release July 1998

I didn't realize this. If a movie's released a year earlier in the UK, does that mean we could possibly get our hands on the DVD release before the movie is in released in U.S. / Canada.

by **Nacht** » Wednesday 30 July 2003 2:18:33pm

From Entertainment Weekly, 9 July 1999:

Originally scheduled for fall '99, Chamber of Secrets was rushed out three months early because Scholastic was horrified by the flood of Internet sales of the British edition. Thanks to amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and other online bookstores, when an in-demand title is published anywhere in the world, it's now only a click away for eager fans. During a U.S. book tour last fall to push Sorcerer's Stone, Rowling saw evidence of this firsthand. "I was amazed how many kids had turned up with {British} copies of the second book," she says. Because of those lost sales--estimated by one insider to be as high as 20,000--Scholastic will also release the third book, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, this September, only a few weeks after it comes out in the U.K. Some publishing insiders believe the series may spur big changes in the industry: Rights to popular authors may soon be sold by language instead of by country.

by **Hermy** » Friday 1 August 2003 2:39:52pm

Maybe JKR will write faster now that the end is in sight?

being ever hopeful

by **Holly Golightly** » Saturday 2 August 2003 4:11:43am

Well, I'm hoping soo too, but then I want big thick books, more like GoF and OotP thatn PS, so I'm expecting it to take longer...

I will keep my fingers crossed tho!!! :grin:

by **AccioNiffler** » Saturday 2 August 2003 4:51:06am

I expect the next book to be either PoA size or GoF size

by **Nacht** » Saturday 2 August 2003 9:53:10am

More GoF size I think. And remember she said 5 would be smaller then 4 for quite some time :grin:

by **Holly Golightly** » Sunday 3 August 2003 3:47:56am

Yeah, that's one of the things that I'm counting on for a nice long book 6 & 7 !!!

:lol:

Broomsticks And Owls

Mathmatical Prediction of Book 6 Release Date

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